Susan Joslyn, PhD Associate Professor, University of Washington
Uncertainty Information & Non-Expert Decisions People regularly make decisions under uncertainty, sometimes with critical consequences such as those we face today in the context of the Coronavirus pandemic. The research program described in this talk explores the benefit of including numeric uncertainty information in predictions intended for non-experts, largely in the context of weather and climate. Unlike earlier work in behavioral economics that compared peoples’ decisions under uncertainty to economically rational standards, discovering numerous reasoning errors, the experiments described here compared decisions made by people with uncertainty information to decisions made by people with single value forecasts alone. Our results suggest that numeric uncertainty estimates allow users to better differentiate situations that do and do not require precautionary action while also increasing trust in the forecast. However, this work also suggests that it is important to present numeric uncertainty estimates in a manner that is compatible with the way in which people process information. Implications for uncertainty communication in other domains such as climate change and COVID19 will also be discussed. chairpsy@uw.edu is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting Join Zoom Meeting
https://washington.zoom.us/j/96155690554
Meeting ID: 961 5569 0554 This free lecture is part of the promotion review for Dr. Joslyn in the Department of Psychology. |